TPP ratification through Fast Track proceedure may fail

Passage of TPP could be a quick before Boehner resigns and leaves.

However, there is some good news that there may be a chance the ratification of TPP through Fast Track could fail on further issues.

1. Proposal on data exclusivity is now 8 years contradicting US patent law on biological medicines which is currently 12 years. Senator Orrin Hatch, President Pro-Tempore and Chair of the Senate Finance Committee recently said he would vote against the TPP if the wording that so contrary to the US patent law on biological drugs is not agreed to by negotiating countries. Even if the US caved in to Australia's  demands to have The US to rollback it's data exclusivity back to 5 years, which we are willing to live with that, it would still be voted against. TPP would be dead on the floor.

2. ISDS safeguard, that would prevent Big tobacco like Phillip Morris from suing countries like Australia, has been reintroduced by President Obama. It was recently proposed but was withdrawn. While it's some good news for anti-tobacco advocates, it's bad for pro-tobacco Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who is pro-Big Tobacco would likely introduce a disapproval resolution, which according to the provision in fast track trade authority requires 60 votes before revoking fast track, thus Republicans would be free to remove the safeguard except like in the normal treaty ratification process, it would require 67, thus it would be difficult to get some Democrats, who oppose the TPP, on board.

3. Immigration Chapter that was leaked as Senator Jeff Sessions warned it would undermine our sovereignty. He voted against Fast Track, so it's likely he would vote against the TPP.

4. It could be two votes short because Senators Cruz, Graham, Paul, and Rubio are in the 2016 presidential race, that unless Senator Joe Manchin, and another pro-trade democrat who supports free trade, or independent Angus King joins in adding the deciding vote by the Senate President, Vice President Joe Biden, who will likely give it a thumb up to pass it.

Update:

TPP is signed. However, I have said in my previous posts the provision in Fast Track that requires the president to release the text of a trade agreement only applies to future trade agreements. So even if it's blocked, the final text will never be released for another 4 years as reported by UK-owned The Independent as leaked. Despite of this, President Obama may have already signed the same day it was finalized, meaning it could be voted on in the house on the first week in December and in the Senate after the holiday recess.